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当前气候情境下三种凤尾藓在中国亚热带东部地区的潜在分布格局
臧程,闫力畅,魏青永,郭水良,于晶
作者单位E-mail
臧程 上海师范大学 2278019971@qq.com 
闫力畅 上海师范大学  
魏青永 上海师范大学  
郭水良 上海师范大学  
于晶 上海师范大学 yujing@shnu.edu.cn 
摘要:
本文基于当前气候条件下11个生物气候变量,以及小凤尾藓乳突变种15个、拟粗肋凤尾藓12个、透明凤尾藓16个国内地理分布记录,应用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件,预测了当前气候背景下这3种凤尾藓属植物在从未报道具体分布数据我国亚热带东部的37个自然保护区的潜在分布格局。11个生物气候变量包括昼夜温差月均值、年温度变化范围、温度季节变化、最热月份最高温、最干季度平均温度和最冷季度平均温度、最湿月份雨量、最干月份雨量、雨量变化方差和最暖季度平均雨量。选择了10%的遗漏错误对应的累积值作为分布预测阈值,并计算了当前气候条件下这3种凤尾藓属植物在我国亚热带东部这37个自然保护区的综合气候适应指数。结果表明,当前气候条件下,小凤尾藓乳突变种在江苏云台山、艾山九龙沟、大洞山、圣人窝、泉山,浙江凤阳山,福建虎伯寮、戴云山、云中山的气候适应性指数较高,它们是小凤尾藓乳突变种在中国亚热带东部地区适宜分布的自然保护区。拟粗肋凤尾藓在福建老鹰尖、藤山、虎伯寮、戴云山、云中山、太姥山,浙江普陀山、雁荡山有很高的气候适应性,在福建大峰山、茫荡山、天宝岩、九阜山,浙江凤阳山,江苏光福的气候适应性较高,它们是拟粗肋凤尾藓在中国亚热带东部地区适宜分布的自然保护区。透明凤尾藓在江苏云台山、艾山九龙沟、大洞山、圣人窝、泉山、铁山寺的气候适应性指数较高,它们是透明凤尾藓在中国亚热带东部地区适宜分布的自然保护区,浙江和福建的气候不适合透明凤尾藓的分布。
关键词:  凤尾藓  MaxEnt  地理分布  预测
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目); 上海师范大学前瞻性预研项目
The potential distribution pattern of three Fissidens species in the subtropical area of Eastern China under the present climatic conditions
Zang Cheng,Yan Li Chang,Wei Qing Yong,Guo Shui Liang,Yu Jing
Abstract:
Based on eleven bioclimatic variables under the present climatic conditions, 15 geographical records of F. bryoides var. schmidii, 12 geographical records of F. ganguleei and 16 records of F. hyalinus in China, this paper used the algorithm of maximum entropy to predict the potential distribution pattern of the three species of Fissidens in thirty-seven nature reserves in the subtropical area of Eastern China, where specific distribution data have never been reported. The eleven bioclimatic variables included the mean diurnal temperature range, the temperature seasonality, the annual temperature range, the max temperature of the warmest month, the mean temperatures of the driest quarter and the cold quarter, the precipitations of the wettest month, the driest month, the warmest quarter and the coldest quarter, and the precipitation seasonality. The corresponding cumulative value for an omission error of 10% was selected as a distribution threshold. An integrated climate suitability index was calculated for each of the thirty-seven nature reserves under the present climatic conditions. The primary results are as follows: Under the current climatic conditions, the climate adaptation indexs of F. bryoides var. schmidii in Jiangsu Yuntaishan, Aishanjiulonggou, Dadongshan, Shengrenwo and Quanshan,Zhejiang Fengyangshan, Fujian Huboliao, Daiyunshan and Yunzhongshan are high. These nature reserves in the subtropical area of Eastern China are suitable for the distribution of F. bryoides var. schmidii. The climate adaptation indexs of F. ganguleei in Fujian Laoyingjian, Tengshan, Huboliao, Daiyunshan, Yunzhongshan, and Taimushan, Zhejiang Putuoshan and Yandangshan are very high, while the climate adaptation indexs in Fujian Dafengshan, Mangdangshan, Tianbaoyan and Jiufushan, Zhejiang Fengyangshan, Jiangsu Guangfu are high. These nature reserves in the subtropical area of Eastern China are suitable for the distribution of F. ganguleei. The climate adaptation indexs of F. hyalinus in Jiangsu Yuntaishan, Aishanjiulonggou, Dadongshan, Shengrenwo, Quanshan and Tieshansi are high. These nature reserves in the subtropical area of Eastern China are suitable for the distribution of F. hyalinus. The climate of Zhejiang and Fujian are not suitable for F. hyalinus.
Key words:  Fissidens  MaxEnt  Geographical distribution  Prediction